Despite Siena Showing Hochul Up 20, GOP Calls Poll Skewed as New Surveys Show Stefanik Leading

Niagara Action
7 hours ago
2 min read

A new Siena College poll released Tuesday claims Governor Kathy Hochul holds a 20-point advantage over Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in a potential 2026 matchup, placing Hochul at 52–32% among roughly 800 likely voters. The numbers show Hochul’s favorability has dropped five points since September.

The poll has prompted renewed criticism from Republicans who argue Siena’s surveys consistently lean toward Democrats and fail to capture right-leaning voter enthusiasm. The critiques have grown as recent polling from other firms have shown Stefanik ahead of Hochul, casting doubt on Siena’s depiction of the race and those they have chose to use as participants.

The results are in stark contrast to those of a Manhattan Institute Poll from October that showed Stefanik with a 43-42 lead over Hochul.

The poll also portrays Hochul dominating a potential Democratic primary, leading Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 56–16%. Pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Hochul maintains a 78–9% advantage among Democratic voters while Stefanik has grown her support on the Republican side to 79–11%. Independents remain far more competitive with Hochul’s margin shrinking to 40–36%, which is down significantly from 43–25% two months ago.

Regional results show the same pattern Siena has traditionally produced: Hochul holding an overwhelming 42-point lead in New York City along with a narrower nine-point edge in the downstate suburbs and an even slimmer three-point lead upstate. Republicans have repeatedly criticized Siena’s regional weighting, arguing it overrepresents New York City and reliably overstates Democratic strength in statewide polling.

Stefanik entered the governor’s race two weeks ago and has quickly escalated her criticism of Hochul. She has successfully tied the governor to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s progressive agenda, in large part due to Hochul's own embracing of Mamdani.