Hochul Lead Narrows as Blakeman Gains Ground in Latest Siena Poll

A new statewide survey suggests New York’s gubernatorial race may be tightening, even as a large share of voters remain unfamiliar with Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman.

According to the latest poll from the Siena Research Institute, incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul now leads Blakeman by 13 percentage points, which is a noticeable drop from the 20-point advantage she had over him in February.

Despite her narrowing margin, Hochul’s overall standing with voters has remained relatively stable. The poll shows 45% of respondents view her favorably compared to 42% unfavorably while her job approval rating sits slightly above water at 52% positive and 40% negative.

Meanwhile, Blakeman continues to face a major hurdle in name recognition. His favorability rating stands at 18% positive and 18% negative, but 64% of voters say they either don’t know him or lack enough information to form an opinion.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that while both candidates’ overall standings have remained largely unchanged, the race itself has tightened. He explained that Democratic and Republican voters remain firmly aligned with their respective candidates, but independents have shifted—moving from favoring Hochul by five points to backing Blakeman by seven points.

He also noted that Hochul’s once-dominant advantage in New York City has decreased significantly and her edge in upstate and suburban regions remains relatively narrow. Greenberg cautioned that it is unclear whether the recent movement reflects a meaningful trend or short-term fluctuation. However, upcoming events including the state budget could provide more clarity.

Beyond the governor’s race, the poll also highlights broader political sentiment across the state. Donald Trump continues to face deeply negative ratings among New Yorkers with his favorability at 35%. His job approval is at 37% positive and 61% negative. Greenberg characterized those numbers as consistent with long-term trends.

At the state level, Attorney General Letitia James holds a 41% favorable rating compared to 30% unfavorable, though nearly half of voters say they would prefer someone else in the role.

The Siena poll was conducted between March 23rd and March 26th surveying 804 registered voters through a mix of landline, cellphone, and online responses. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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Hochul Lead Narrows as Blakeman Gains Ground in Latest Siena Poll