Stefanik Gains Ground as Hochul Faces Tight Re-election Fight, Poll Finds

New York Governor Kathy Hochul could be heading for a bruising re-election battle in 2026 as a new statewide poll shows her Republican challenger, Rep. Elise Stefanik, within striking distance in what has long been considered a safely Democratic state.

According to a recent survey conducted by J.L. Partners, Stefanik holds a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters and is statistically tied with Hochul in a general election matchup.

The poll found that 74% of GOP respondents favor Stefanik as their party’s nominee, compared to just 5% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with most remaining voters undecided. The primary survey, conducted November 9th–10th among 400 likely Republican voters had a margin of error of 4.9%.

J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told the New York Post that “Stefanik seems to dominate the Republican vote. It’s a done deal.” The congresswoman’s overwhelming name recognition appears to be driving her early advantage with more than three-quarters of Republican voters viewing her favorably.

However, the more troubling numbers for Democrats come from the general election portion of the poll. In a head-to-head contest, Hochul leads Stefanik by just 46% to 43%, well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, making the race effectively a dead heat.

The general election survey of 500 likely voters, conducted over the same period, also revealed deep voter dissatisfaction with the governor. Only 37% of respondents said they would definitely or likely support Hochul’s re-election, while 55% said “it’s time for someone new.”

These results underscore the mounting challenges facing Hochul as she grapples with voter frustration over high living costs, population decline, and controversial criminal justice reforms including cashless bail and parole policies that critics argue have fueled rising crime and public safety concerns.

Stefanik, now serving her sixth term in Congress and a member of House Republican leadership, has positioned herself as the voice of those frustrations. She has made affordability, public safety, and opposition to Albany’s progressive policies the core of her campaign message, echoing former President Donald Trump’s criticisms of cashless bail laws.

The poll also highlights Stefanik’s growing institutional support within the Republican Party. Twelve GOP state senators, led by Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt, have endorsed her bid, calling her “the fighter New York needs.” Nine county executives across the state have joined in, citing what they describe as Hochul’s “failed progressive policies” driving families and businesses out of New York.

While Johnson noted that high Democratic turnout could still give Hochul the edge, he warned that GOP momentum, combined with voter anger over Albany politics and frustration with progressive figures like Zohran Mamdani, suggests that New York’s political map could be shifting.

J.L. Partners, which accurately projected the outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, currently rates the 2026 New York governor’s race as a “coin flip.”

If Stefanik maintains her momentum, she could pose the strongest Republican challenge to a sitting Democratic governor in New York in decades.

Promotional Content

Stefanik Gains Ground as Hochul Faces Tight Re-election Fight, Poll Finds